A Venezuela Without Chavez?

What Comes After Chavez?

By: Wikistrat

CNN World

February 10, 2012

Citation: http://tinyurl.com/7yx97qo

This Sunday, the historically disorganized Venezuelan opposition movement is holding its first-ever presidential primary to decide upon a single candidate to challenge long-time strongman Hugo Chavez. With regional governor Henrique Capriles expected to prevail, the aging Chavez faces a younger version of himself: namely, a dynamic rising star promising to transform the political landscape. This time, however, the figure is moving it away from the heavy-handed populism initiated by Chavez after he swept into office in 1998.

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This article attempts to hypothesize what may happen in Venezuela if Chavez is challenged by the opposition movement in it's first presidential primary. The prevailing opponent, Capriles, is a younger version of Chavez, and may pose quite the challenge to the aging and ailing president. Chavez instituted populism in Venezuela, marked by the persecution of political opponents, nepotism in parliament, an emerging oil industry, and close relationships with fellow Chavista leaders in Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Cuba. The authors highlight five potential post-Chavez situations in Venezuela. First, the opposition's campaign could create anti-Chavez fallout; or Chavez could be elevated to martyr status like Che in Cuba, allowing for his brother to assume the presidency and continue the Chavez rule of Venezuela. However, given Latin American history, a military junta could assume power behind the scenes, using a figurehead ruler to appease the people; alternatively, Venezuela could be the new Colombia, full of drug violence. The last scenario has the next Venezuela leader as the new "Lula;" Brazil won't allow its neighbor to fall to evils of globalization, and instead could use its regional leadership to lead it into a functioning democracy.

To begin, I found this analysis interesting because what happens in Venezuela could indicate a shift in power in Latin America. For example, if Chavez is on the out, a power vacuum could emerge, either shifting Venezuela to a nepotistic "all in the family" government like Cuba, or to a potentially more violent state, like Mexico, propelled by drug violence. I think the comparisons that this article makes between Venezuela and situations in other Latin American countries are really interesting. The fact that Chavez and his government are facing real opposition for the first time in a long time is highly significant. However, Latin American history does indicate that this situation may not turn out well. What would happen to security and stability in Latin America if Venezuela went the way of Mexico? How would that situation impact its relations with other countries in the region? Or, could a military junta government or a case of Chavez nepotism lead the way to another long and brutal Latin America civil war, marked by violence and "disappearances"? As the current situation in Honduras indicates, when it comes to politics in Latin America, everything hangs on a very thin thread. I think though that the last situation, involving Brazil and its regional power, is the most interesting given the current situations in globalization and development. In International Human Rights Law, we talk about the power of regional organizations over more Western influences (think of the Arab league in Syria before the situation escalated to its current predicament). Brazil, due to rapid development and globalization has become a relatively potent 'democratic' force in Latin America. I'd like to think that perhaps this will count for something if the future of Venezuela's politics seems uncertain.